Overview

U.S.-Israel Attack on Iran (February 2026)

The Strike and Its Immediate Effects

Operation Epic Fury was the U.S. code name for its joint military operations with Israel against Iran. The opening salvo took out the heart of the Iranian regime, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and triggered a torrent of hundreds of retaliatory missiles and thousands of drones from Iran across the Middle East. The killing of Khamenei — a sitting head of state and the most powerful figure in the Islamic Republic for over three decades — was without precedent in modern American military action and immediately transformed the scope and character of the conflict.

In response to the attack, Iran launched a series of counter-strikes against Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, and military and civilian locations in Arab states, many of which house U.S. forces. U.K. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Cyprus were attacked, and the RAF was deployed in a defensive capacity. Iran also closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global trade. The attacks left enormous damage, thousands of people dead in Iran, Lebanon, Israel, and the Gulf Arab states, and millions of people displaced in the region.

War Aims and the Regime-Change Posture

U.S. officials articulated a number of specific military objectives, including destroying Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and program, destroying Iran's navy, ending Iran's support for terrorist groups, and ensuring that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon. But the administration went further. Trump stated the war goals were to destroy Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, eliminate its navy, prevent Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon, and sever its support for proxy forces. Trump also called for regime change, encouraging Iranians to seize control of their government.

The regime-change dimension was both the most ambitious and most controversial element of the U.S. posture. In the lead-up to the conflict, Israeli intelligence chief David Barnea had devised a plan to overthrow the Islamic Republic by galvanizing the Iranian opposition after several days of U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassinations, prompting them to riot and rebel against the government. This would include decapitating the leadership of Iran and intelligence operations, leading to a mass uprising. The plan was presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who adopted it. CNN noted that the explicit call for Iranians to "take over your government" placed the United States closer to an openly stated regime-change posture — something Trump had long criticized in past U.S. interventions. Trump had frequently condemned U.S. attempts to remake the Middle East, and in a speech in Riyadh, he had denounced previous American leaders for seeking to impose new systems in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Significance and Impact

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis

As part of its response to U.S. and Israeli attacks beginning on February 28, Iran sought to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea channel that comprises both Iranian and Omani territorial waters. Specifically, Iran sought to route ships through its territorial waters rather than through long-standing shipping lanes, attacking ships that were not compliant with their directives. The closure and disruption of the Strait — through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes — produced a global fuel crisis and placed enormous pressure on Gulf Arab states, European allies, and Asian trading partners alike.

The United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in April 2026 and signed a June 2026 memorandum of understanding (MOU), but conflict resumed in July 2026 as Iranian forces launched attacks on commercial shipping deemed noncompliant with Iranian demands. The MOU set out plans for talks in an initial 60-day period on issues including freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and sanctions. However, the MOU's durability quickly proved fragile. Iran sought to assert hegemonic control over the strait and eventually collect fees on ships passing through. It repeatedly warned ships to use preapproved routes and follow protocols set by the regime, and followed up on its threats by firing at multiple ships, including three commercial vessels in early July. Iran's activity in the strait tested the limits of the MOU and prompted attacks by the United States in response.

Regional and Humanitarian Consequences

The conflict damaged air hubs, rocked densely populated areas, and disrupted oil shipments. Israeli military strikes in 2024 and joint strikes with the U.S. over twelve days in 2025 had already undermined Iran's defenses and nuclear program. Iran's counter-strikes on Arab Gulf states in 2026, who had sought to deepen relations with Tehran in recent years, may also leave it further isolated. The succession crisis within Iran added an additional layer of instability. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his son was selected as his successor — a rushed and contested transition that raised questions about the Islamic Republic's long-term cohesion.

Reactions and Debate

Legal and Constitutional Controversy

The Trump administration's decision to act without congressional authorization generated immediate legal and political controversy. The administration's decision to attack Iran without seeking authorization from Congress illustrated how broad the president's claimed authority over the use of force had become. The executive branch maintained that the president may use military force without seeking congressional authorization. The president chose not to offer a full discussion of this choice in his 2026 State of the Union address, providing only a cursory public justification once the bombs started dropping. In the days prior to the war, Americans were divided about the merits of attacking Iran, but were united on the need for obtaining congressional approval before acting. The administration's legal rationale — framed around the right to self-defense under the UN Charter until the Security Council takes action, and accusations that Iran was continuing to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — did not quiet congressional critics on either side of the aisle.

Domestic and International Response

Several protests were held throughout the United States in opposition to the assassination of Ali Khamenei and the strikes against Iran. Hundreds of protesters gathered in front of the White House, both in support and in opposition to the strikes. Internationally, the reaction was sharply divided. Although Israel participated in the strikes against Iran alongside the U.S. from February 28, it was not directly participating in the Pakistan-mediated talks. Following a conversation with President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the president had told him the final agreement would have four elements, including removing enriched material and limits on Iranian missiles. Several members of the ruling government in Israel and Israeli opposition leaders were critical of the memorandum.

With no clear military path to regime change and the war already deeply unpopular at home, the president faced the same strategic dilemmas that had defined the conflict from the start. The juxtaposition of an ambitious regime-change objective against a June MOU that fell well short of it underscored the gap between the war's stated aims and its achievable outcomes.

Outlook

A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire and the June MOU halted large-scale fighting, but both sides have since traded strikes over alleged violations. A durable settlement remains elusive, with core disputes over Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief unresolved. Iran has said it wants to establish a new regime to govern the Strait of Hormuz, and one of its negotiators said in June that access to the strait will include charges. Oman, which has managed the strait with Iran, opposes any tolls, which the U.S. says would be unacceptable to include in any deal.

The question of Iranian succession remains an open variable. The hastily installed successor to Khamenei governs a weakened state, but the popular uprising that U.S. and Israeli planners anticipated has not materialized in any organized form. The war's most consequential long-term effects may ultimately be institutional: the executive's expansive use of unilateral war powers without congressional authorization, the redrawing of Strait of Hormuz transit norms that have governed global commerce for decades, and the uncertain stability of a post-Khamenei Islamic Republic that remains hostile but structurally damaged. Whether the June MOU can be transformed into a durable framework — or whether conflict resumes — remains the defining unresolved question of this episode.